As per usual ahead of a CPI report, we deliver the best charts on the USD inflation outlook. With May inflation coming in low across the globe, we see clear downside risks to the inflation report consensus.
Everything released from the US economy this week speaks in favour of a pause. The NFP and CPI reports hold the potential to alter that view but the bar is high. We think the hiking cycle is over.
The hiking cycle seems over, even if inflation is running too hot. Lower rates are likely needed to resteepen the curve and tempt money back into deposits from bills and money market funds. The Fed is caught between a rock and hard place.