BoJ likely intervened yesterday for the first time in a year, the American labor market looks stronger than feared and PBoC is looking to cope with domestic capital flights. Read more in this week’s edition of ‘5 Things We Watch’.
The Energy Cable #34 – Double top…now what?
Is the Chinese malaise an issue for energy bulls? Let’s have a look at market fundamentals and price action amidst the ongoing melt-down in Chinese construction.
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The Energy Cable #33 – The handoff – From positioning to fundamentals
Happy start to the week everybody, hope you have had a great weekend! Lots of things are going on in markets right now, perhaps most importantly China, so let’s dive right into that.
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The Energy Cable #23 – MBS vs Biden!
The battle between MBS and Biden seems to be intensifying and so far Saudi Arabia is struggling to get the upper hand. Will the OPEC+ supply cut prove to be a game changer for markets?
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The Energy Cable #19 – Watch out for temperatures to be a joker in Nat Gas markets
Even the scarcity of energy will probably not bring bullish price-action back to natural gas markets, while the outlook for oil is brighter. Can oil and gas crush the obstacles that they are faced with? Find out in this version of the energy cable, where Warren and I as usual don’t quite agree.
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The Energy Cable #18 – Dwindling USD liquidity and Oil
Few markets have shown ambiguity like energy markets have, and the ghost of 2022 still haunts many investors deterring them pulling the trigger. Is a sequel brewing, or will the deterioration continue? We present to you two different takes on the matter.
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The Energy Cable #10: Is the risk/reward turning in energy space?
Risk reward may be about to turn for parts of the European energy space after a land-slide in prices in recent quarters. Will margins increase this spring again? Let’s have a look at the details, while we wait for more data in oil space.
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The Energy Cable #6 Bearish inventories across both oil and natural gas and waiting for the Chinese reopening to show up!
Bearish inventories across both oil and natural gas and waiting for the Chinese reopening to show up! Here is the latest “Energy Cable” update on Natural Gas, Oil – and the overall energy complex with price signals and model based predictions. The only publication to cover this sector across geographies and asset classes. Enjoy!
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The Energy Cable #3 – Does technical analysis work for oil?
We have taken a look at technicals in the oil market. Is it voodoo or magic? We also update our price signals for oil and natural gas. Time to buy? Enjoy!
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Southern Hemisphere Watch #1 – The First Failed Lithium State
At the dawn of the EV-revolution, Bolivia is at risk of being the first failed lithium state. Is Elon Musk to blame? Find out in this article, where I also explain why Bolivian lithium is still a good bet for investors.
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The Great Game #6 – European Gas Drought?
Will the new price cap drive Europe into gas shortages next winter? And how will Xi and Putin capitalize on this?
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Steno Signals #25 – Is there any energy left in the energy trade?
Energy has been THE performer of 2022, but is there any energy left in the trade as commodity markets are turning bearish? We look at price action and fundamentals underlying the consensus trade #1
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Steno Signal #18 – The winners and losers of energy nationalism in Europe
If electricity becomes a scarce commodity, it is important to note who’s on top of the situation and who’s not. Here is the answer and how it plays into my portfolio thoughts.
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Steno Signal #17- A historic FX crisis in Europe
A historic gas sabotage and FX crisis. We have enough to look at in Europe this week. Here is my take on how to seek shelter from the current crisis. Enjoy!
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Steno Signals #16 – A (semi)-permanent energy GDP-shock in Europe?
Developments through 2022 have exposed the interlink between macro, geopolitics and markets. We see a risk of a (semi)permanent European GDP-shock due to a lack of energy.
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Steno Signals #14: What on earth is going on in European electricity markets?
European electricity markets are completely out of sync with fundamentals and we have spent most of this week understanding why – here is our take-away!
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Steno Signals #13 – No, Germany is probably not running out of gas
The media is full of doom and gloom around Europe, and even though the situation is admittedly bad, I tend to think that the likely outcome is less bad than feared by many. Here is why!
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Steno Signals #8: Outright deflation risks in 2023 are increasing
The current supply squeeze is one of the worst seen ever. The disconnect between demand fundamentals and food- and energy prices is simply eye-catching. Watch the downside, but not yet.
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Stenos Signals #3 – The bluff of a decade?
A lot of investors are rightfully scared that Russia is about to invade Ukraine. It almost never pays to bet on geopolitical turbulence and the current situation may prove to be a decent opportunity.
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