Energy has been THE performer of 2022, but is there any energy left in the trade as commodity markets are turning bearish? We look at price action and fundamentals underlying the consensus trade #1
Steno Signals #20 – NO soft landing unless central banks admit to disinflation
It is hard to find a single inflation indicator not rolling over, but there is ONE and that will be tricky to handle for the Fed. Meanwhile, European energy supplies are MUCH better than feared!
Steno Signal #18 – The winners and losers of energy nationalism in Europe
If electricity becomes a scarce commodity, it is important to note who’s on top of the situation and who’s not. Here is the answer and how it plays into my portfolio thoughts.
Steno Signal #17- A historic FX crisis in Europe
A historic gas sabotage and FX crisis. We have enough to look at in Europe this week. Here is my take on how to seek shelter from the current crisis. Enjoy!
Steno Signals #16 – A (semi)-permanent energy GDP-shock in Europe?
Developments through 2022 have exposed the interlink between macro, geopolitics and markets. We see a risk of a (semi)permanent European GDP-shock due to a lack of energy.
Steno Signals #14: What on earth is going on in European electricity markets?
European electricity markets are completely out of sync with fundamentals and we have spent most of this week understanding why – here is our take-away!
Steno Signals #12 – You will all hate me after this..
Germany is doing MUCH better than reported on the Nat Gas front, while everyone seems to agree upon a European zombie-apocalypse scenario making July/August the most hated rally ever.
Steno Signals 11 – Inflationistas vs Recessionistas
Is this a return to a 70s-like fight between inflation and recession? The energy supply scarcity is likely to bring about yuge business cycle volatility in coming years until the situation is settled.
Steno Signals #8: Outright deflation risks in 2023 are increasing
The current supply squeeze is one of the worst seen ever. The disconnect between demand fundamentals and food- and energy prices is simply eye-catching. Watch the downside, but not yet.
Stenos Signals #5 – How do you trade stagflation?
Inflation is not going to peak in Q1 as the most recent price developments in energy- and food prices will lead inflation much higher in Q2. So, the question is now; How do you trade stagflation?