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What We Told Hedge Funds: Waller Assassinating the Dollar?
2025-07-18
While the front-runners for the Fed Chair job all seem eager to talk down the value of the USD, the U.S. economy keeps surprising to the upside—just as we projected. ...Something for your Espresso: You are fired (or not)
2025-07-17
The unusual public discourse around Fed Chair Powell’s potential dismissal continues. While an actual layoff remains highly unlikely, the groundwork is being laid for an increasingly politicized FOMC. Position accordingly. Get ...The Drill: Trump breaks out of the friendzone
2025-07-16President Trump has completed a remarkable u-turn on Russia, who have 50 days to come to terms – or face the potential impacts on commodity markets from the coming Sanctioning ...Something for your Espresso: A continued bias in inflation forecasts
2025-07-16US inflation continues to surprise on the low side, yet the message from both investment banks and central banks remains: “it will arrive soon.” Will this persistent bias in inflation ...Something for your Espresso: A highly asymmetrical CPI setup
2025-07-15The fear of rising inflation is already embedded in USD market expectations, and the Fed has effectively promised that the impact of tariff-flation will start showing up now. This leaves ...Steno Signals #205 – The inflationistas have painted themselves into a corner
2025-07-14The issue with Trump’s new deadline on August 1st is that it allows “too late Jerome” the opportunity to wait and see for another few months, as the Fed needs ...
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