Something for your Espresso: Are these ISM numbers recessionary?
Goodmorning from Europe.
A hawkish pause from the RBA (if that is a thing) with warnings of more hikes to come. Maybe the BoC, RBA and the Fed are currently in the same boat? 12.5 bps pr meeting on average?
The ISM Manufacturing came out just above 46 after an eight consecutive month of contraction in the goods sector. All sub-components of the index are now printing below 50, which is a relatively rare event – not least if it occurs outside of an actual economic recession.
The jury is still out on whether this is a trustworthy recession indicator during this cycle as the spread between goods and services has been humongous over the past couple of years. The ISM Services number later this week will be a guiding star on the overall reading of the economy, but even the ISM Services has struggled to truly take the temperature on the US economy recently.
We are back to the good old discussion on whether eight straight months of manufacturing contraction equals a recession or not. The jury is still out, and equity markets have not received the memo yet in case. The ISM Services will be a guiding star, but not a decisive one.
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