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Inflation Watch: Why inflation is not in the grave but a dead man walking

Peak inflation is in, but monetary policy works with “long and variable lags” as monetarists say. While Goods inflation is sliding, some areas are resilient and services inflation remains an issue. Even though expectations and soft data are perplexing, there are pockets of data indicating a fight-back to the weakening dove sentiment.
2023-04-12

 

In my debut piece released on March 30th I wrote:

“I do not doubt that the tunnel has little light at the end, but there are plenty of data points that leave me thinking that the market has rushed its conclusion – and that the demand for rate cuts perhaps is a tad too early.

I expect FED will favor utilizing such measures over broad rate cuts to limit the amount of money printed. They can backstop the liquidity drain and buy collateral of the suffering banks instead of cutting rates- I would not be surprised if the FED ramps up such measures in the next few weeks.

Furthermore, the recent PMI prints in Europe, the resilience of services inflation, and the latest EIA withdrawal all add to my skepticism of the current market pricing and expectations”

Since release, Oil has rallied more than 10% and the curve has priced-in risks of further tightening. But as this process has been ongoing since early in March (although my view was the same back then), it is perhaps not quite worthy of a self-congratulatory victory lap, but coupled with our positions have done fairly well – I am fairly content with my start as Head of Research here at Steno Research. 

Peak inflation is in, but monetary policy works with “long and variable lags” as monetarists say. While Goods inflation is sliding, some areas are resilient and services inflation remains an issue. Even though expectations and soft data are perplexing, there are pockets of data indicating a fight-back to the weakening dove sentiment.

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