Central bankers accept that the next move is a cut, but they are continuously talking about “walking the last mile” on inflation. How long does it take to walk a mile?
Kind of a shocker for markets with weakness in Chinese Services despite a weekend of benign news. The reopening impulse in Services is fading, which shows how important it is to stabilize Construction/Manufacturing.
The intricacies of the US labor market make it challenging to derive coherent insights. To shed some light on our perspective, here are three charts that aid in elucidating our view
If the service industry starts to fade relative to the Manufacturing sector, it may be exactly what central banks use as the excuse to pause (and eventually pivot) but markets are much more sensitive to Manufacturing PMIs.