While liquid markets are still trying to make up their minds on whether to rise from the ashes of H2 2022 or continue the downward trajectory, I think it is due time we put the real estate markets under the scrutinous loop once more.
The Energy Cable #3 – Does technical analysis work for oil?
We have taken a look at technicals in the oil market. Is it voodoo or magic? We also update our price signals for oil and natural gas. Time to buy? Enjoy!
Europolitics watch #2: The Tory Tragedy isn’t about division – it’s about defeatism
12 years of civil war in the Conservative party has trapped Rishi Sunak in a doom-loop between economic crisis and a defeatist Tory MP group. Will the 2024 general election clear the path for reform?
Steno Signals #27 – The tanned grinch
Lagarde starred in the role as the slightly more tanned Grinch as central banks decided to ruin Christmas. Structural liquidity doesn’t look too bad and 2023 is not necessarily the year of the bear.
Steno Signals #25 – Is there any energy left in the energy trade?
Energy has been THE performer of 2022, but is there any energy left in the trade as commodity markets are turning bearish? We look at price action and fundamentals underlying the consensus trade #1
Steno Signal #18 – The winners and losers of energy nationalism in Europe
If electricity becomes a scarce commodity, it is important to note who’s on top of the situation and who’s not. Here is the answer and how it plays into my portfolio thoughts.
Steno Signals #16 – A (semi)-permanent energy GDP-shock in Europe?
Developments through 2022 have exposed the interlink between macro, geopolitics and markets. We see a risk of a (semi)permanent European GDP-shock due to a lack of energy.
Steno Signals #14: What on earth is going on in European electricity markets?
European electricity markets are completely out of sync with fundamentals and we have spent most of this week understanding why – here is our take-away!
Steno Signals #13 – No, Germany is probably not running out of gas
The media is full of doom and gloom around Europe, and even though the situation is admittedly bad, I tend to think that the likely outcome is less bad than feared by many. Here is why!
Steno Signals #12 – You will all hate me after this..
Germany is doing MUCH better than reported on the Nat Gas front, while everyone seems to agree upon a European zombie-apocalypse scenario making July/August the most hated rally ever.