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Steno Signals #205 – The inflationistas have painted themselves into a corner
2025-07-14
The issue with Trump’s new deadline on August 1st is that it allows “too late Jerome” the opportunity to wait and see for another few months, as the Fed needs ...What We Told Hedge Funds: Is Trade War 2.0 Less Relevant Than Trade War 1.0? Certainly, Yes.
2025-07-11
Trump seems to have reignited the focus on trade and tariffs, but high beta assets couldn’t care less. The Covid playbook is highly relevant here, as the shock effect becomes ...Something for your Espresso: Wen trade deals? BTC doesn’t care.
2025-07-11While the worst is probably behind us in terms of tariff announcements, we’re still patiently waiting for the deals that were all but pre-promised by Howard Lutnick and others in ...Something for your Espresso: Here comes the Chinese stimmie!
2025-07-10China is mulling new stimulus — exactly as expected once the USD weakened enough and the trade war found an equilibrium. This is going to underpin an already procyclical development. Get ...The Drill – Is $65 the political equilibrium price?
2025-07-09As OPEC+ moves to increase production quotas – what are the real price drivers on the oil market and what does it tell us about the macro outlook? You need to ...Something for your Espresso: Here come the Section 232 tariffs
2025-07-09Tariffs on copper, semiconductors, and pharma are now finally (semi)-live, and we should expect seven country-specific trade updates later today as the “deadline” looms. Meanwhile, the RBNZ will keep easing. Get ...
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