No surprises from the BoJ this time around as Ueda maintains rates and YCC at current levels. Some risks are removed pushing Yen a bit down and bond yields dive along, but otherwise markets are behaving rather orderly here. Long Japan is a good case, but in equity terms, not in stand-alone carry terms as the carry is too negative as long as Ueda is unwilling to move the needle.

After watching the press conference from the ECB yesterday, we made the following four major conclusions on the back of it.

1) Both July and September are in play for rate hikes. 50 bps is likely the worst-case from here and there is no consensus around September yet if we trust the ECB sources that are ALWAYS readily available for journalists maximum 2 hours after the press conference.

2) The APP QT program will run at FULL speed from July and onwards, which means a little less than 30bn a month on average (2x the speed of current QT). The PEPP will remain flexible in reinvestments, which can help “close spreads” if needed.