Filter by Categories
Watch Series
The Great Game
Daily Post
Steno Signals
Free sample
Emerging Markets
Video

Scandi-flation Watch: Finally a bit of respite?

Scandi-flation numbers are out next week from Norway and Sweden. Will we see CPIF inflation in Sweden printing below 2%? (Yes, we said that) and Norwegian inflation printing below 0% MoM again? Here are the details
2024-01-05

Welcome to our Scandi inflation watch. Based on public demand, we will release our SEK and NOK inflation views on a running basis as well.Norwegian (underlying) inflation to print below 0% MoM again

December is typically a seasonally weak inflation month in Norway with declines in Clothing and Footwear prices, Food prices- and health prices. 

Food prices will likely decline >2% MoM, while Clothing and Footwear prices will decline around -0.5% MoM. The recreation and culture category is likely to bounce compared to November and increase around 0.25% MoM. All three categories are softer than seen in 2020-2022 on average based on our price point observations for December.

Furnishing and Household equipment will likely also print on the soft side of typical seasonal price increase patterns with an increase around 1.3% MoM.

A print just above -0.1% MoM in CPI-ATE is our base-case, which takes the annual CPI-ATE to just south of 5.3%. Norges Bank expects 5.6% and there is not yet any IB consensus to match this against.

Chart 1: CPI-ATE versus Norges Bank

Scandi-flation numbers are out next week from Norway and Sweden. Will we see CPIF inflation in Sweden printing below 2%? (Yes, we said that) and Norwegian inflation printing below 0% MoM again? Here are the details

To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.

0 Comments