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Inflation Watch: Any last gasping from the “Inflation zombie” in the cards?

This week's CPI report aligned seamlessly with our expectations, affirming the anticipated cycle-pattern. Naturally, this begs the question - what lies ahead, and what could break our view? Some additional thoughts for the weekend.
2023-04-14

 

Written by Emil Møller, Head of Research

I outlined some thoughts prior to the CPI release here. After reviewing this week’s inflation report, I believe it would be appropriate to assess our current standing and briefly reflect on our main takeaways. Naturally, we cannot miss the chance to reiterate that our prediction for the report was spot on as mentioned in our Thursday morning cover here.

It is getting tougher to play the devil’s advocate and indeed most indicators point towards a rather pacy de-acceleration as this last print serves to underline. Headline CPI has come down – and soon services will follow along – why we might not even talk about inflation

in a couple of months. The signs are staring you in the face: Core cooling, goods inflation plummeting, and of course – the M2-anchor is sinking prices effortlessly. As the monetarists will never stop parroting “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon”:

This week’s CPI report aligned seamlessly with our expectations, affirming the anticipated cycle-pattern. Naturally, this begs the question – what lies ahead, and what could break our view? Some additional thoughts for the weekend.

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