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EUR-flation Watch: Consensus is OFF (again)

Inflation will get tricky to forecast due to VAT-base effects in the coming months and potential big volatility in utility costs in January. The December numbers look off for France and Spain in particular.
2023-12-28


We interestingly see a pattern where Germany is used to predict MoM consensus elsewhere in December. German consensus numbers look relatively sensible, while Spanish numbers are off.

Net/net, the ECB will likely get another dovish surprise relative to their base case, and we see more of such upcoming surprises in Q1-2024. Here is our detailed overview of the December preliminary EUR-flation numbers.

Let’s have a look at the details!

Inflation will get tricky to forecast due to VAT-base effects in the coming months and potential big volatility in utility costs in January. The December numbers look off for France and Spain in particular.

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