EUR-flation Watch: Consensus is OFF (again)
We interestingly see a pattern where Germany is used to predict MoM consensus elsewhere in December. German consensus numbers look relatively sensible, while Spanish numbers are off.
Net/net, the ECB will likely get another dovish surprise relative to their base case, and we see more of such upcoming surprises in Q1-2024. Here is our detailed overview of the December preliminary EUR-flation numbers.
Let’s have a look at the details!
Inflation will get tricky to forecast due to VAT-base effects in the coming months and potential big volatility in utility costs in January. The December numbers look off for France and Spain in particular.