Welcome to our weekly “The week at a glance” report released every Monday morning (and replacing our Something for your Espresso every Monday). We look at the most important releases of the week ahead and address how we are positioned for them.

We have a relatively light week ahead of us in terms of key figure releases but both the RBA and the SNB will set policy rates, while the major key figure release is the UK inflation report ahead of the BoE meeting. Let’s have a look at the details.

US Retail Sales (Tuesday) – Steno Research 0.5% MoM – Consensus 0.3% MoM

US consumption is most likely picking up speed again, as suggested by withheld taxes and real-time indicators like same-store sales.But the market seems more obsessed with disinflation, so a robust retail sales report from May probably won’t shake up the rates markets. After all, everyone already thinks the June projections are overly hawkish.

Still, a strong report might give Consumer Discretionary stocks a summer boost, and the USD could keep outpacing the EUR, which is still limping along with the”French disease.”

We see a strong risk/reward case on the high side of consensus and our numbers are in line with some of the most precise retail sales forecasters empirically.

Chart 1: US consumption is doing better than feared