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Steno Signals #84 – The Red Sea troubles are spreading FAST!

The issues in the Red Sea are spreading from containers to dry bulk and energy. The impact from the Red Sea will not be seen short-term, but it may prove to be a sneaky and relatively lasting positive impact on inflation.
2024-01-28


Happy Sunday folks and welcome to our flagship editorial!

We have been banging the drum on the re-acceleration of goods inflation due to the Red Sea debacles for a while. Our Geopolitical Team highlighted the shipping risks as the largest risk to markets already on Oct 31 and we have been all over this story since – sadly watching the ever accelerating worsening by the week.

The Suez has de facto been closed for containerships not sailing under Russian flag for a while, but the attacks over the weekend on the British tanker MV Merlin Luanda is potentially a sharp escalation of the situation as the tanker carried Russian oil. Whether the Houthis were aware of this is debatable, but tankers are now under siege and the crisis is spreading fast from Containers to Dry Bulk to Energy.

We are approaching a 1970s style de facto shipping blockade! Find more shocking data and how to trade it below!

Chart 1: You shall not pass

The issues in the Red Sea are spreading from containers to dry bulk and energy. The impact from the Red Sea will not be seen short-term, but it may prove to be a sneaky and relatively lasting positive impact on inflation.

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