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Something for your Espresso: The gas trade (and proxies) running out of gas?

The spike in Nat Gas prices looks like a dead-cat-bounce for now, but the recent retracement may hide the underlying improving price fundamentals for the energy space. Orders to inventories are improving, even in the most bombed out sectors in Germany.
2023-08-24
<a href="https://stenoresearch.com/author/andreas/" target="_self">Andreas Steno</a>

Andreas Steno

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Representatives of LNG workers in Australia have endorsed the in-principle agreement with Woodside, which leaves the risk of strikes low. The risk of strikes initially sparked fears in Nat Gas markets, but the receding risks paired with ahem recessionary vibes in Europe has seen Nat Gas trade all the way back to the bottom of the range in TTF 1month futs.

Our medium-term quant model has not yet broken into bull territory but we have seen marked improvements of the risk/reward in nat gas longs since early this year, among other things due to an improving risk/reward in betting on upwards surprises to the demand outlook.

Chart 1: Not yet bull-time in Nat Gas

The spike in Nat Gas prices looks like a dead-cat-bounce for now, but the recent retracement may hide the underlying improving price fundamentals for the energy space. Orders to inventories are improving, even in the most bombed out sectors in Germany.

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