Filter by Categories
Watch Series
The Great Game
Daily Post
Steno Signals
Free sample
Emerging Markets
Video

Something for your Espresso: Inflation or not?

Inflation evidence based on price trends in January remains soft in Europe, but the danger from freight rates looms large. Will the ECB choose the half glass full or empty approach on Thursday?
2024-01-22

Morning from Europe

French finance minister Le Marie confirmed that electricity costs will rise by 8.6-9.8% nationwide by first of February in a televised appearance yesterday 

This is LESS than penciled in by the ECB in the Q1-HICP forecast (15% was the increase in Feb-2023) and a little less than our projection of 10%.
Another (albeit mildly) soft surprise in relation to the VAT-increases in Q1. This takes our now-cast of French HICP in February to 0.41% MoM against an increase of 1.13% in Feb-2023.

There will be plenty of benign “base effects” in European HICP data in Q1, except from in Italy.

Chart 1: HICP projections for France

 

Inflation evidence based on price trends in January remains soft in Europe, but the danger from freight rates looms large. Will the ECB choose the half glass full or empty approach on Thursday?

To read the full article, sign up for a 14-day FREE trial of the Premium plan.

0 Comments