Something for your Espresso: Here comes the shutdown..
Good morning from Europe..
It is crunch time in the debt ceiling soap opera as the TGA is running close to shutdown levels again. Remember that the TGA is never fully depleted by the time the US Treasury sanctions a partial shutdown and typically the TGA levels is around 6-10% of the target when the shutdown is implemented. This currently leaves us less than $50bn off the threshold. Could a shutdown be in play already this week or next? We tend to think so, also as the probability of a deal being struck seems very low at this juncture.
Find out what it means for the USD with a free trial below.
Chart 1: The TGA is never fully depleted by the time of the shutdown