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Something for your Espresso: Central bank bonanza – what is priced in?

A big central bank week ahead – what’s priced in and have central banks been surprised on the up- or downside to projections on inflation? Let’s have a look!
2023-06-12

Good morning from Europe.

What a week ahead! Our best assessment is that the Fed holds the biggest potential to surprise on the hawkish side of expectations, while the ECB is 100% fair priced with limited upside. Bank of Japan is as per usual a dark horse, but Ueda has not been a man of surprises (yet).

The Fed decision on whether to skip or hike depends 100% on the inflation number on Tuesday. We see downside to the 4.1% YoY projection and find that it will be enough for the Fed to ultimately decide on a skip.

Market pricing is still very benign for the Fed and monthly rates of inflation around 0.1-0.15% are needed to convince them of a prolonged pause. Doable, but not a certainty. Hawkish bias will remain intact from Powell – also since Core PCE has printed above projections.

Find out about EUR and JPY pricing below.

Chart 1: USD rates pricing

A big central bank week ahead – what’s priced in and have central banks been surprised on the up- or downside to projections on inflation? Let’s have a look!

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