Business Cycle Watch: Is the US in a recession already? Here are the pros and cons
It’s not like we haven’t had this discussion a few times already this cycle, but the recession chatter is staring at us again after the weakest ISM report in years.
The percentage of respondents reporting higher New Orders has weakened to levels only seen during the GFC. So, is it time to buy puts and canned food and head for the cellars?
Not so fast. There is probably more nuance to the cycle this time, as the economy has changed during the pandemic, which makes it less obvious that the ISM signal means you should run for the hills.
Chart 1: The weakest ISM report in decades
Another horrendous ISM Services report has catapulted recession chatter right back into the limelight. As the ISM Service numbers admittedly look recessionary, we take a look at the pros and cons of trusting the ISM signal.
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