Filter by Categories

Something for your Espresso: So another beat on NFP?

Will the NFP beat expectations as per usual? Looks like given the data we have seen this week. This leaves USD rates at a critical juncture even if price data from surveys continue to look benign.
2023-07-07
<a href="https://stenoresearch.com/author/andreas/" target="_self">Andreas Steno</a>

Andreas Steno

0

Good morning from Europe.

We will keep it short and sweet this Friday as everything you need to know around the current macro momentum can be summed up in a few telling charts.

USD rates are pointing up again after positive beats in the ADP and the ISM reports. ADP hinted of continued extreme job creation in hospitality and leisure and while we don’t see ADP as a strong indicator for the NFP, the ISM Services employment rose to healthy 53.1, which is a level consistent with another strong labour market report.

Will the NFP beat consensus again, again? Most likely. A 275-300k reading is in play again.

Chart 1: NFP beats expectations every single time it seems

Will the NFP beat expectations as per usual? Looks like given the data we have seen this week. This leaves USD rates at a critical juncture even if price data from surveys continue to look benign.

Get access / Login

0 Comments

STENO RESEARCH IS JOINING REAL VISION

From July 2025, Steno Research is joining Real Vision to create the ultimate macro research product for you!

As a subscriber, this means the following:

Yearly subscriber: For legal reasons, we cannot transfer your pre-paid subscription directly. You need to register with Real Vision and then we’ll transfer your pre-paid subscription quickly afterwards. Simply go to https://www.realvision.com/free and sign up - and then we’ll take care of the rest! We will shut down service of Steno Research on July 31st, so be sure to make the transfer to keep receiving our content.

Already a RV subscriber?
Please check that you are using the same e-mail. If yes, you don't need to do anything. If not, please contact [email protected].

Monthly subscriber: Your current monthly subscription with Steno Research will end during July (31st at the latest). To continue accessing our research (and more), you’ll need to sign up for a Real Vision membership. Check out your options on: https://www.realvision.com/pricing

For Institutional Clients:
- Your access has been moved to our new institutional offering at NowcastIQ.com
- If you haven’t been moved already, please contact [email protected]