Something for your Espresso: So another beat on NFP?
Will the NFP beat expectations as per usual? Looks like given the data we have seen this week. This leaves USD rates at a critical juncture even if price data from surveys continue to look benign.
Good morning from Europe.
We will keep it short and sweet this Friday as everything you need to know around the current macro momentum can be summed up in a few telling charts.
USD rates are pointing up again after positive beats in the ADP and the ISM reports. ADP hinted of continued extreme job creation in hospitality and leisure and while we don’t see ADP as a strong indicator for the NFP, the ISM Services employment rose to healthy 53.1, which is a level consistent with another strong labour market report.
Will the NFP beat consensus again, again? Most likely. A 275-300k reading is in play again.
Chart 1: NFP beats expectations every single time it seems
Will the NFP beat expectations as per usual? Looks like given the data we have seen this week. This leaves USD rates at a critical juncture even if price data from surveys continue to look benign.
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