Seasonality Watch: Why a Dec hike remains in play
Remember the abysmal numbers seen in the US economy around the year-turn of 2022/2023 and the sharp rebound in numbers into February/March (December and January data respectively)?
Well, for those of you who have been clients of Steno Research since January, it is no surprise that these trends were driven by extreme adjustment activities in spreadsheets.
The seasonal factors in ISM Manufacturing reached record negative territory in January, but adjustments penciled in for Dec this year are clearly less extreme. Could this lead to a stronger-than-feared December in activity but a terrible Q1?
We are talking about an addition of 1-1.5 index-points relative to last year in December (see charts 1.a and 1.b)
Chart 1.a : Less bizarre seasonal adjustments over year-turn