We were honestly puzzled by the weakness in Manufacturing PMIs in April as our models pointed in the other direction. The timely data delivered by daily congestion numbers point in a positive direction (also adjusted for seasonality), which is typically a strong sign that the lagging consumption numbers (of energy, food and the likes) will see upside.

The congestion based now-cast from ports, roads and air data sources point to 5-6% YoY increase still and the US truck market demand index rebounded in the first few weeks of May as well after a soft path in April.

In other words, we consider a re-entering of reflation trades timely!

Chart 1a: Congestion is seasonally strong!