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Oil Watch: The EIA plot thickens

I have basically spent most of the day (outside of meetings) assessing the EIA report from yesterday and the more I look, the more I find the plot to be thickening. Could the EIA report be an outlier? Massive news in case. Here is all of the data!
2023-10-05

Good Evening from Europe!

The EIA report moved oil markets markedly yesterday and the sell-off has continued today. If the EIA report is indeed a true reflection of the slide in the retail gasoline demand, it may shave off >1mn barrels a day in global demand for oil.

The BIG issue for the EIA report is that it is 100% out of sync with high frequent transportation data, so what do we make of it here?

Let’s have a look at the data.

Chart 1: The EIA data suggests that the gasoline demand was at a 23-year low in September

 

I have basically spent most of the day (outside of meetings) assessing the EIA report from yesterday and the more I look, the more I find the plot to be thickening. Could the EIA report be an outlier? Massive news in case. Here is all of the data!

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