Welcome to our now-cast series on EUR-flation. We have been banging the drum on dovish surprises in the Euro area for a while, but there are signs of upside risks in April inflation numbers from our price observations made through the month.

Especially German inflation could surprise on the sticky/high side of consensus.Our overall now-cast projections lean around 0.1%-points above consensus for April.  Let’s have a look at the details.

Chart 1: Now-casts for the four major Eurozone economies

France HICP (Tuesday): Steno Research 0.56% MoM versus consensus of 0.5% MoM

We see French numbers leaning around 0.1%-points above consensus with some of the wage-heavy categories printing in the high end of the spectrum. We see recreation and culture, restaurants and similar categories leading the surprise on the upside.

The consensus ahead of the release is relatively centered around 0.5%. 

Chart 2a: French April numbers decomposed