Filter by Categories

Electricity Watch: Why Ze Germans are OK for now

The weather is playing ball with the German electricity aid package as hydro storages are elevated while Nat Gas storages are almost full. Even if the German heavy industry starts demanding 15-20% more electricity, the troubles are a few months away.
2023-11-15

We have so far seen a very contained market reaction to the electricity aid package from Germany last week, but there are loads of reasons why markets can absorb the demand-fuelling news in energy markets short-term. Maybe there is a window of opportunity for the German industry before price pressures return?

As per usual we deliver the conclusions upfront before getting to the details:

1) The IFO index covering the Germany industry is likely going to improve in the coming months

………

6) There is a window of opportunity for the EUR and German stocks short-term. We remain long Germany in our portfolio but await better fundamentals in the Nat Gas trade for now. 

 

Chart 1: The ZEW details point to 5-10 index points higher IFO in the coming months

 

The weather is playing ball with the German electricity aid package as hydro storages are elevated while Nat Gas storages are almost full. Even if the German heavy industry starts
demanding 15-20% more electricity, the troubles are a few months away.

0 Comments

STENO RESEARCH IS JOINING REAL VISION

From July 2025, Steno Research is joining Real Vision to create the ultimate macro research product for you!

As a subscriber, this means the following:

Yearly subscriber: For legal reasons, we cannot transfer your pre-paid subscription directly. You need to register with Real Vision and then we’ll transfer your pre-paid subscription quickly afterwards. Simply go to https://www.realvision.com/free and sign up - and then we’ll take care of the rest! We will shut down service of Steno Research on July 31st, so be sure to make the transfer to keep receiving our content.

Already a RV subscriber?
Please check that you are using the same e-mail. If yes, you don't need to do anything. If not, please contact [email protected].

Monthly subscriber: Your current monthly subscription with Steno Research will end during July (31st at the latest). To continue accessing our research (and more), you’ll need to sign up for a Real Vision membership. Check out your options on: https://www.realvision.com/pricing

For Institutional Clients:
- Your access has been moved to our new institutional offering at NowcastIQ.com
- If you haven’t been moved already, please contact [email protected]