The Watch Series
Positioning Watch – Prepare for further action in JPY pairs
With BoJ intervening this week, moneyness in options expiring next week has exploded and will likely imply further stress in JPY pairs, while broad equity sentiment sours. Our weekly positioning overview here.
Energy Cable: The recipe for another summer of exploding energy prices (in Europe)
We present the ingredients needed for another potential acceleration of electricity prices in Europe over the Summer and looking at data it seems like chances are becoming greater
The Week At A Glance: ISMs, NFP, FOMC & QRA to put even more pressure on USD rates?
Loads of USD key figures and we mostly lean in a hawkish direction. This could re-fuel strong flows into the USD and paid USD rates positions. Here is why in our “the week at a glance” publication.
Trade Alert: Stopped out of JPY in the turmoil..
The recent turmoil in JPY – which turned out to be an intervention by MoF / BoJ – pushed us out of our JPY bet.
Portfolio Watch: No respite for Asian FX.. How to deal with it?
The accelerating USD vs Asian FX trends will impact markets across assets into next week. What’s cheap and what’s expensive if the CNY is getting devalued in the coming weeks?
EUR-flation Watch: April is hot (in inflation terms)
There are signs of a mild re-acceleration of inflation trends in Europe relative to last year, which will see YoY inflation trends rising again. There are generally risks to the upside.
Ifo Nugget: Confirmed.. The only inflation you’ll get in Germany is supply driven
The full Ifo report just landed which means another quick Ifo Nugget with the most important charts from this month’s German activity numbers, which overall came in weak. Let’s dive into it.
Trade Alert: Buying the dip
We see reasons to bet on a reversion of the latest weakness across risk assets and have decided to buy the dip.
Positioning Watch – 0 Fed cuts is almost the most favored outcome in market pricing now
Option-implied probabilities derived from DEC2024 SOFR options show interesting dynamics in Fixed Income sentiment, where rates traders now almost see 0 cuts or even hikes as the most favored outcome by December this year. Read how positioning data has evolved over the last week here.
Energy Cable: Inflation starting to bite equities
The rise in energy prices, the USD wreckingball and the higher-for-longer narrative has finally reached equities, which seems to be taking a bit of a breather here. We take a look at movements in energy and commodity markets once again.
Trade Alert: Stepping out of the silver bet
While precious metals could provide further gains if a USDCNY devaluation comes into play, we book some profits in the turmoil.
Portfolio Watch: Sitting on our hands
It is tricky to time the drones flying back and forth in the Middle East, which is why we are sitting on our hands. We see an increasing latent potential in risk assets paired with higher rates when the dust settles.
Shipping Watch: No news is bad news (for inflation)
Headlines in the beginning of 2024 were dominated by shipping and logistic troubles but over the last months that has almost died completely down. With “no news” we continue to see spill-overs to goods inflation in coming months.
Trade alert: Scandi RV
We see a strong RV case between the Scandis!
Scandi Watch: Assessing the path for SEK and NOK rates
The Norwegian rate path is likely to look dovish in June in contrast to expectations. Here is our “cheat sheet” to assess the NOK rate path daily. At the same time, NOK/SEK remains too cheap as the global reflation narrative is positive for NOK versus SEK.
Positioning Watch – Volatility is back, but markets still lean into USD duration.. God knows why..
Volatility was more or less muted in the beginning of the year, but the cocktail of less dovish statements from Fed officials, strong economic data and the USD wreckingball has sent volatility in the other direction. Has it moved positioning? Not really, but that doesn’t mean that it’s not important.
Trade Alert: Weakness in Asia…
Despite initial succes, our long Asia bet did not turn out in our favor
Energy Cable: Good luck reaching your 2% target, Powell
The reflation will likely continue as long as Powell and his ilk keeps an implicit dovish bias intact. Energy markets will likely remain bid, but the broader commodity story seems more interesting to play than oil at these levels.
Trade Alert: Stopped out of our NOK technicality bet
The USD wreckingball has overshadowed the bullish technicalities in the long NOK bet, and we were stopped out today.
Portfolio Watch: The USD wrecking ball is back
King USD is back and portfolio rebalancing flows will likely emphasize the move into next week. We are at crossroads in FX markets as energy commodities are starting to impact price action.
UK Inflation Watch: A dovish surprise upcoming
The early consensus for UK inflation next week looks relatively hot given typically benign patterns in March, which are likely underpinned by the Early easter timing. We see a downside surprise of roughly 10-12 bps to consensus.
G3 Rates Watch: No one’s got a clue on R*, yet the market is convinced that it does!
High for longer vibes are once again impacting the EUR- and USD rates forward pricing. Is the market wrong to assume that equilibrium rates have to be lower than current spot levels? None of us knows, yet the market is hellbent on assuming it knows!
Trade Alert: Getting out of duration in AUD & EUR
Exiting some suration trades and moving on in the reflation trades
US CPI Review: Inflation is accelerating, no return to 2% in sight
US core inflation printed only a few bps away from our forecasts in another report showing the firm price pressures in the US economy. Inflation is accelerating right when Powell and his ilk want to start cutting rates.
Positioning Watch – Reflation bets are back in
As the cyclical survey-based comeback seems to be priced in fully by markets, new fan-favorites have emerged: inflation hedges.
Energy Cable: Melt UP in commodities upcoming?
While we have booked profits in our long oil bets, we are getting increasingly bullish on the broader commodity complex. Especially a couple of metals look extremely interesting here.
Portfolio Watch: The real world is reflating again
Our portfolio cheers on the broadening commodities rally! We delve into the risks and opportunities of this surge, its reflationary impact on strategic allocation, and present our convictions going forward.
Out of the Box: 6 reasons the Fed will be hiking rates in 2024
Another ‘Out of the Box’ with some food for thought on Fed’s rate path and the most un-appreciated risk scenario, namely more hikes.
Trade Alert: Playing the last reflation saloon and NOK technicalities
The final reflation melt-up may be right in front of us during Q2. Position accordingly.
Scandi Watch: More NOK liquidity coming, but with positive FX spot effects?
The money market working group in Norway has presented its early results. Here are the main take-aways for the NOK and NIBOR.
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Steno Signals
5 Things We Watch Ahead of the FOMC Meeting
Tonight’s FOMC decision will likely come as a surprise to markets, but the rhetoric and possible acknowledgement of market pricing will be key. We provide 5 things that we look at to understand the situation the Fed has placed themselves in.
Steno Signals #97 – 5 reasons why the CNY will be devalued next week and how to trade it
The list of triggers for a material devaluation of the CNY keeps getting longer and action is probably imminent. The question is how markets will react to such an event and whether it will prove to be a new trend.
5 Things We Watch – SOFR Probabilities, USDJPY, CNY Devaluation, IFO & Eurozone electricity
Equities are back to winning ways, while USD rates traders agree on 0 cuts this year being a probable scenario. Meanwhile, China is likely preparing for a devaluation of the CNY, and the intervention risks in JPY pairs increases, and the next macro battle in 2024 will likely be found in EM.
