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The Watch Series

What We Told Hedge Funds: Going vertical

What We Told Hedge Funds: Bye Bye 2025, Hello 2021

Risk assets are ripping as the macro backdrop echoes 2021: growth is back, inflation is soft, and liquidity is flowing. With the trade war U-turn and fiscal brakes off, we’re rotating into high-beta names, industrial metals, and global trade plays to ride the wave through summer.

What We Told Hedge Funds: Going vertical

What We Told Hedge Funds: The Hated Equity Rally Has More Legs to Go!

No matter where you turn, strategists and analysts are calling the rally in risk assets overdone, arguing that the damage to the economy is already baked in. But as we’ve seen repeatedly, that damage keeps getting delayed by frontloading. And if trade deals are actually on the table soon (admittedly a big assumption), then the outlook is far more procyclical than what the IMF, Bloomberg, and others are currently expecting.

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Steno Signals

What we told Hedge Funds: You are all wrong on the US

What we told Hedge Funds: You are all wrong on the US

We continue to observe an odd sense of pessimism surrounding the U.S. economic recovery, even as leading indicators have begun to turn up sharply. I can’t shake the feeling that the market is reluctant to acknowledge what’s ahead.

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The Drill: Who’s in Trump’s good books?

The Drill: Who’s in Trump’s good books?

As we approach the July 9th tariffs deadline, we’ve taken a fresh look at the state of global trade relationships and what to expect in the coming week. While the trade war has become something of an old hat, certain countries may still find themselves under pressure—especially as commodities continue to soar.

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