The Watch Series

Here is what we told Hedge Funds this week – and how we’re trading it!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!

Here is what we told Hedge Funds this week – and how we’re trading it!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!

Positioning Watch – Has DeepSeek Really Made Markets Flip on Tech?
Has Deepseek changed anything when it comes to positioning and sentiment? Not really, and Tech continues to be a fan-favourite in equity space!

Here is what we told Hedge Funds this week – and how we’re trading it!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!

Positioning Watch – Cutting Out the Trump Noise: Hedge Funds Are Still Betting on Higher Rates!
Everything at the moment seems to revolve around Trump and his policies. How have markets been positioned heading into inauguration week, and is it possible to cut through the noise?

Spending Watch – Where is the Consumer Heading From Here?
The consumption part of the economy is probably THE macro variable to watch in 2025. We provide a detailed overview of the state of the consumer across the US, Eurozone and China here!

Here’s What We Told Hedge Funds This Week – and How We’re Trading It!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!

Positioning Update – Key positioning trends ahead of CPI
Ahead of the CPI report, we share key positioning trends across all asset classes.

Here is what we told hedge funds this week – and how we’re trading it!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape—all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!

Positioning Watch – How the Tables Have Turned in Fixed Income
Equities are off to a bad start as rates continue to climb higher, and positioning has shifted significantly in bonds since Christmas. More downside risk looms if volatility continues to rise, which seems likely.

2025 Regime Update: How Does the Opening Scene of 2025 Look?
With the start of 2025 rapidly approaching, we share some insights from our data library that can identify the direction in which things are moving globally from the start of 2025!

Here is what we told hedge funds this week – and how we’re trading it!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!

Positioning Watch – Everything you need to know about Fixed Income positioning before we enter 2025
As we approach year-end markets have started reacting strangely to data prints from both the US, EZ and UK in rates space, all of a sudden withdrawing a lot of the cuts in 2025 from forward-pricing. What’s going on?

Here is what we told hedge funds this week – and how we’re trading it!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!

Positioning Watch – Is the Santa Rally at risk of being canceled? Not yet..
There are a lot of signs that the current rally in risk assets is driven primarily by continued flows despite macro showing mixed signs, which begs the question whether the clock is ticking for risk assets like US equities and crypto.

Geopolitical Flash Update: See you later Scholz!
Debt will grow when Scholz leaves office, but Germany is still better off than hopeless France.

Here is what we told Hedge Funds this week – and how we’re trading it!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!

Positioning Watch – Markets have NOT been Ready for Growth to Weaken in the US
Hedge funds are heavily favoring US > Europe across all asset classes, but what if the Europe trade is starting to reverse while the US trade is running on fumes?

Europe Flash Watch – The German 2025 bazooka!
It might be time to load up on European risk as Germany is moving towards an easier fiscal policy stance, which in turn may force the ECB to soften up on balance sheet projections as Bunds (and other European govies) are already trading at extremes versus the swap.

Steno Research Q&A
It’s time for another Steno Research Q&A, where we delve into the latest developments in macroeconomics and geopolitics.

Geopolitical Flash Update – Bye Bye Barnier
Prime minister Michel Barnier’s government will fall this evening barring a miracle.

Here is What We Told Hedge Funds This Week—and How We’re Trading It!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape—all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!

Positioning Watch – The US Exceptionalism Story Is Back in Play!
The US is now being heavily favored across positioning gauges, which begs the question: is it time to be a bit more cautious about US risk assets going into 2025?

Flash Liquidity Update: A USD liquidity PUT is now in place
A very interesting set of meeting minutes was just released, revealing that the Fed is, in effect, discussing a put for USD liquidity. The Fed is considering changes to support liquidity developments as early as December.

Here’s What We Told Hedge Funds This Week – and How We’re Trading It!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!

Positioning Watch – The Herd Behavior Strikes Back!
Everyone and their mothers are long equities, and we would need a substantial trigger to truly reverse momentum at these levels. Where are the cluster risks after the positioning normalization that followed the Trump victory, and what should you look out for as we approach year-end?

Germany Watch: Navigating Political and Trade Uncertainty
Germany faces mounting challenges as political uncertainty and economic pressures collide. With no clear coalition emerging, February 2025’s election could lead to prolonged gridlock. Global trade tensions, potential U.S. tariffs, and sluggish manufacturing growth weigh heavily. Can new leadership or a shift in the anticipated course for the U.S. trade policy provide the course correction Germany needs?

Trump Watch: Possible U-Turn on Tariffs?
Could the Trump administration prove to be less brutal on trade now that Musk and Vivek have fully endorsed the Milei policy mix? We take a closer look at Elon Musk’s supply chains and how they might influence the Trump administration’s stance.

Macro Regime Watch: An In-Depth Look at Regime Trends Across Major Markets
Markets are front-running an anticipated U.S. liquidity surge, yet in Europe, the ECB’s slower response to liquidity challenges is adding pressure. Meanwhile, in China, growth appears artificially propped up by official targets rather than driven by real demand, with domestic consumption remaining weak.

Flash Macro Watch: The Fed has abandoned its 2% target
The Fed is not returning to 2% inflation this cycle, as we’ve suggested for some time. The question now is how this will shape returns in USD, fixed income, Crypto and equities heading into 2025, given that the Fed will ease regardless.
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Steno Signals

Steno Signals #184 – Here is the roadmap for the business cycle in 2025
Reciprocal tariffs will put markets on the back foot right from the start of the week, leaving certain EMs highly vulnerable, while Europe remains well-positioned. Setting the noise aside, the 2025 cycle looks very promising.

Steno Signals #183 – The Pain Trade is a Weaker USD, While China Could Surprise on the Upside
“How would you go long the USD at the Wellington open?” is a clear hint of the current sentiment. Could the USD peak already today, and where is the money to be found in this environment? Trade suggestions for this week are attached!

Steno Signals #182 – Cutting Through the Trump Noise: A Massive Uniform Move Is Happening
There are (and will be) Trump headlines right, left and centre over the coming weeks. Trading macro is therefore all about being right on the core underlying macro trends and cutting out the policy noise!