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Europe Flash Watch – The German 2025 bazooka!

Europe Flash Watch – The German 2025 bazooka!

It might be time to load up on European risk as Germany is moving towards an easier fiscal policy stance, which in turn may force the ECB to soften up on balance sheet projections as Bunds (and other European govies) are already trading at extremes versus the swap.

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Steno Research Q&A

Steno Research Q&A

It’s time for another Steno Research Q&A, where we delve into the latest developments in macroeconomics and geopolitics.

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Flash Liquidity Update: A USD liquidity PUT is now in place

Flash Liquidity Update: A USD liquidity PUT is now in place

A very interesting set of meeting minutes was just released, revealing that the Fed is, in effect, discussing a put for USD liquidity. The Fed is considering changes to support liquidity developments as early as December.

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Positioning Watch – Has DeepSeek Really Made Markets Flip on Tech?

Positioning Watch – The Herd Behavior Strikes Back!

Everyone and their mothers are long equities, and we would need a substantial trigger to truly reverse momentum at these levels. Where are the cluster risks after the positioning normalization that followed the Trump victory, and what should you look out for as we approach year-end?

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Europe Flash Watch – The German 2025 bazooka!

Germany Watch: Navigating Political and Trade Uncertainty

Germany faces mounting challenges as political uncertainty and economic pressures collide. With no clear coalition emerging, February 2025’s election could lead to prolonged gridlock. Global trade tensions, potential U.S. tariffs, and sluggish manufacturing growth weigh heavily. Can new leadership or a shift in the anticipated course for the U.S. trade policy provide the course correction Germany needs?

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Europe Flash Watch – The German 2025 bazooka!

Trump Watch: Possible U-Turn on Tariffs?

Could the Trump administration prove to be less brutal on trade now that Musk and Vivek have fully endorsed the Milei policy mix? We take a closer look at Elon Musk’s supply chains and how they might influence the Trump administration’s stance.

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2025 Regime Update: How Does the Opening Scene of 2025 Look?

Macro Regime Watch: An In-Depth Look at Regime Trends Across Major Markets

Markets are front-running an anticipated U.S. liquidity surge, yet in Europe, the ECB’s slower response to liquidity challenges is adding pressure. Meanwhile, in China, growth appears artificially propped up by official targets rather than driven by real demand, with domestic consumption remaining weak.

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Europe Flash Watch – The German 2025 bazooka!

Flash Macro Watch: The Fed has abandoned its 2% target

The Fed is not returning to 2% inflation this cycle, as we’ve suggested for some time. The question now is how this will shape returns in USD, fixed income, Crypto and equities heading into 2025, given that the Fed will ease regardless.

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