The Watch Series
What We Told Hedge Funds: Is Trade War 2.0 Less Relevant Than Trade War 1.0? Certainly, Yes.
Trump seems to have reignited the focus on trade and tariffs, but high beta assets couldn’t care less. The Covid playbook is highly relevant here, as the shock effect becomes smaller and smaller with each iteration.
What We Told Hedge Funds: Going vertical
We nailed the top in oil, called the bluff on weak income data — and July could bring a wave of upside surprises. Here’s why re-inflation is back on the table.
What We Told Hedge Funds: We Are Climbing the Wall of Worry
The uncertainty surrounding Iran has added another layer of concern for markets, on top of a series of weaker-than-expected key data points. We’ll have to climb a wall of worry in the coming weeks — but historically, those have proven to be good accumulation opportunities.
What We Told Hedge Funds: From Disinflation to Reflation
With the initial stockpiling wave behind us, supply shocks—such as the current one in the oil market—are likely to start impacting prices again. We have reached the bottom in inflation this week, and it’s time to adjust accordingly.
What We Told Hedge Funds: The road is cleared for all-time-highs
Markets are still underpricing the scale of the reflationary macro shift. Retail is all-in on the dip, but hedge funds remain stuck in doomsday mode. With CTAs cornered, tariff drama fading, and a reflationary tailwind building, the road to all-time highs may be clearer than most think.
What We Told Hedge Funds: Either You Do Japan, or Japan Does You
What has happened in Japan over the past week is worth noting, with extreme flows out of the fiat system and the long end of the bond market. Here’s why it matters across asset classes, and why many cross-asset correlations have flipped.
What We Told Hedge Funds: Bye Bye 2025, Hello 2021
Risk assets are ripping as the macro backdrop echoes 2021: growth is back, inflation is soft, and liquidity is flowing. With the trade war U-turn and fiscal brakes off, we’re rotating into high-beta names, industrial metals, and global trade plays to ride the wave through summer.
What We Told Hedge Funds: The Hated Equity Rally Has More Legs to Go!
No matter where you turn, strategists and analysts are calling the rally in risk assets overdone, arguing that the damage to the economy is already baked in. But as we’ve seen repeatedly, that damage keeps getting delayed by frontloading. And if trade deals are actually on the table soon (admittedly a big assumption), then the outlook is far more procyclical than what the IMF, Bloomberg, and others are currently expecting.
What We Told Hedge Funds: When Did We Remove April from the Market Calendar?
Risk assets are partying like April didn’t happen, which begs the question: are markets slowly but surely starting to shrug off the macro risks associated with the US-China trade war? It all depends on the US’s ability to close deals—and quickly—before macro data starts to roll over for good.
What We Told Hedge Funds: We Are Staring Directly Into a 2020-Like Shock
The more we look at it, the more it seems the economic shock unfolding in the US is of similar magnitude to what we saw in March 2020—a forced lockdown of the global economy led by shattering global supply chains and trade.
What we told hedge funds this week: Panic o’clock as Trump nukes the cycle
Trump has nuked the business cycle, and the wheels are coming off. Inflation is about to fall like a stone, and central banks will panic-ease soon—even if they won’t admit it. A decently strong NFP report paired with Powell’s speech was exactly what investors didn’t need.
Protectionism Meets Liquidity: Why Central Banks Will Cut More
As Political Fragmentation Rises, Bitcoin’s Role as a Borderless Asset Comes Into Focus
Here is what we told Hedge Funds this week – and how we’re trading it!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!
Flash Inflation Watch: What if everyone is wrong on inflation (in the US)?
Economic textbooks would have you believe that inflation should spike in the U.S. and fall outside of it following the implementation of tariffs. But right now, it seems the opposite might be happening. Could that really be the case?
Here is what we told Hedge Funds this week – and how we’re trading it!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!
Positioning Watch – Markets are starting to align for growth to slow down
CTAs have been long the USD and short global Fixed Income, but the tides are now starting to turn. The stars are aligning for lower bond yields, while the equity picture is a bit more mixed.
Here is what we told Hedge Funds this week – and how we’re trading it!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!
Here is what we told Hedge Funds this week – and how we’re trading it!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!
Positioning Watch – Hedge Funds Are Max Long USD and Short US Fixed Income
Based on our proprietary positioning data, our best guess is still that hedge funds are max long the USD while being heavily short US Fixed Income, a trend that has only magnified in recent weeks. We probably still have more squeezing to do as growth weakens in the US.
Here is what we told Hedge Funds this week – and how we’re trading it!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!
Here is what we told Hedge Funds this week – and how we’re trading it!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!
Positioning Watch – Markets are positioned for higher rates and a higher USD. Get ready for wrongfooting!
Markets continue to stay long the USD while staying short US bonds, which will likely lead to a material wrongfooting across big players if bond yields continue down, which is the clear message from both Trump and Powell!
Here is what we told Hedge Funds this week – and how we’re trading it!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!
Here is what we told Hedge Funds this week – and how we’re trading it!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!
Here is what we told Hedge Funds this week – and how we’re trading it!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!
Positioning Watch – Has DeepSeek Really Made Markets Flip on Tech?
Has Deepseek changed anything when it comes to positioning and sentiment? Not really, and Tech continues to be a fan-favourite in equity space!
Here is what we told Hedge Funds this week – and how we’re trading it!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!
Positioning Watch – Cutting Out the Trump Noise: Hedge Funds Are Still Betting on Higher Rates!
Everything at the moment seems to revolve around Trump and his policies. How have markets been positioned heading into inauguration week, and is it possible to cut through the noise?
Spending Watch – Where is the Consumer Heading From Here?
The consumption part of the economy is probably THE macro variable to watch in 2025. We provide a detailed overview of the state of the consumer across the US, Eurozone and China here!
Here’s What We Told Hedge Funds This Week – and How We’re Trading It!
Each week, we summarize the key insights we’ve shared with hedge funds, highlight what to watch for, and explain how we’re navigating the macro landscape – all in a simple, concise format. If you want to thrive in markets, this is a must-read!
Videos
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Steno Signals
Steno Signals #204 – Is the Trump project still vastly misunderstood?
Ahead of a new tariffs-intensive week, we’ve asked ourselves whether the Trump project remains misunderstood by many. Where is the MAGA project heading—and how should we allocate accordingly?
What we told Hedge Funds: You are all wrong on the US
We continue to observe an odd sense of pessimism surrounding the U.S. economic recovery, even as leading indicators have begun to turn up sharply. I can’t shake the feeling that the market is reluctant to acknowledge what’s ahead.
The Drill: Who’s in Trump’s good books?
As we approach the July 9th tariffs deadline, we’ve taken a fresh look at the state of global trade relationships and what to expect in the coming week. While the trade war has become something of an old hat, certain countries may still find themselves under pressure—especially as commodities continue to soar.