Recent European Parliament elections have seen significant gains for right-wing and populist parties across various member states, including Germany, France, and Italy. These parties have capitalized on public discontent with EU policies on immigration and climate action.

The right-wing swing is driven by two major trends: anti-immigration sentiment and opposition to aggressive climate policies. Voters are increasingly frustrated with the EU’s handling of these issues, leading to a shift towards parties that promise tougher stances. Historically, right-wing parties have struggled to form cohesive parliamentary groups, limiting their ability to wield significant political power. This fragmentation is likely to continue in the coming parliamentary term, reducing their overall impact.

The resignation of the Belgian Prime Minister and French President Macron’s call for new parliamentary elections on Sunday, June 30, 2024, and Sunday, July 7, 2024, marks the next significant battlegrounds in European politics. These events will test the strength and cohesion of right-wing parties and their influence on national policies.

Over the coming parliamentary term, I expect the right wing parties to do very little actual policy-making, so the effect on the green transition on Europe as well as the upcoming budget enlargement is likely to be very little.

The European Commission is expected to disclose this week the tariffs it plans to impose on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) due to what it says are excessive subsidies. This move follows Washington’s recent decision to quadruple duties for Chinese EVs to 100%, although Brussels is expected to set significantly lower tariffs.