Hello Everyone and welcome back to our weekly Portfolio Watch!

Quite an interesting week here leading up to central bank decisions and as per usual we will be all over it. Goldilocks data keeps coming in but we fear markets may be a bit stretched on risk appetite, and as a result, we have closed our AI FOMO trade today. Besides getting out of the AI we have entered a Commodity long (see here), taken profits on USDCNY long, and added a UST steepener (both trade alerts available here).

We are entering a stage where the risks of growth scare outweigh the threat of inflation, (something I wrote a small note on here). From a structural perspective, we would favor gradually substituting risk assets with fixed income when the market does the opposite over the coming months alongside the short-term cyclical rebound that we have covered this week.

I stated on this episode of our Macro Sunday podcast, that I would be amazed if we don’t see some blood come late September to early October at the very latest- since then my anxiety has only grown. Some points here and charts to substantiate my perspective.

VIX remains super compressed. We had a whiff of noise earlier in July I still think the odds are heavily skewed toward a reversal.

Chart 1:VIX 2023 vs average path

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