Welcome to this week’s Great Game! I know that geopolitics are probably the last thing you want to have to consider these days, but there are some scenarios we need to cover, so here’s a quick rundown of the most important geopolitical risks right now:

Iran-Israel stand-off

Situation:

As discussed last week, the tensions in the Middle East are increasing. We are still awaiting the response from Iran following the assassination of Hamas leaders inside Iran last week and the latest assessments point to attacks on Israel in a few days.

My core analysis is still that Israel is essentially fighting a war, but struggling to find places to actually fight the enemy. There are skirmishes around Gaza, but nothing too major and the overall situation is still that Hamas is nowhere near defeated. They still exist as an ideology – arguably much stronger at that compared to pre-October 7th. Now, Israel has turned to assassinations, partly in an attempt to present some ‘victories’ to the domestic audience in Israel without risking the opening of entire new fronts around Israel.