Filter by Categories

Something for your Espresso: Waller’s Way

Waller's speech yesterday underlines the hawkish risk to current market pricing and we are not surprised by it. Read our Morning reflections below!
2024-01-17
<a href="https://stenoresearch.com/author/emilmoller/" target="_self">Emil Møller</a>

Emil Møller

0

Good Morning from Europe!

In a little while, we will release our Eurozone CPI preview, but until then, the floor is mine!

Like many others, I spent last night watching Waller’s speech. Searching for relevant points in subtle Fed member speeches is rarely productive, but the ambiguity in Waller’s speech served to confirm one thing:

If we are indeed in a soft landing territory for 2024, the number of cuts to be made by Powell & Co. is substantially lower than what the market currently anticipates.

While not committing to any specific path ahead, the emphasis on maintaining real rates at their current level, provided that the underlying economy remains stable, was a clear hint to me that the Fed will adjust rates proportionally with progress on the inflation front.

If true there is no shortage of feet to be wrongfooted if the US economy holds up

Chart 1: Fed, Implied policy

Waller’s speech yesterday underlines the hawkish risk to current market pricing and we are not surprised by it. Read our Morning reflections below!

Get access / Login

0 Comments

STENO RESEARCH IS JOINING REAL VISION

From July 2025, Steno Research is joining Real Vision to create the ultimate macro research product for you!

As a subscriber, this means the following:

Yearly subscriber: For legal reasons, we cannot transfer your pre-paid subscription directly. You need to register with Real Vision and then we’ll transfer your pre-paid subscription quickly afterwards. Simply go to https://www.realvision.com/free and sign up - and then we’ll take care of the rest! We will shut down service of Steno Research on July 31st, so be sure to make the transfer to keep receiving our content.

Already a RV subscriber?
Please check that you are using the same e-mail. If yes, you don't need to do anything. If not, please contact [email protected].

Monthly subscriber: Your current monthly subscription with Steno Research will end during July (31st at the latest). To continue accessing our research (and more), you’ll need to sign up for a Real Vision membership. Check out your options on: https://www.realvision.com/pricing

For Institutional Clients:
- Your access has been moved to our new institutional offering at NowcastIQ.com
- If you haven’t been moved already, please contact [email protected]