Something for your Espresso: Twice the pride double the fall?
Good morning!
Here at Steno Research, we’re dedicated to keeping things rolling throughout July. Fortunately, there’s no shortage of captivating subjects to delve into within this highly unusual market.
A lot has been said about the resilience of the US economy which keeps taking everyone by surprise as hard data keeps coming in hot. We maintain a positive stance on the US economy (at least when compared to the Eurozone) and consequently, we remain bullish on USD vs the EUR. Both these views are reflected in our live portfolio which you can access here but it shouldn’t be a surprise if you have followed our research these past months. What has gone largely under the radar, however, is the mixed signals coming in US soft data- Take the last ISM report which clearly looks abysmal on the surface of it:
Chart 1: % of ISM Manufacturing components below 50
Our portfolio is green and our calls have generally been on point but for a few misses. But it seems the further we near the end of the hiking cycle the more noise the usual signals carry. Will Eurozone PMIs today be another example of this? Meanwhile, the stakes are getting higher with the Real Estate market looking increasingly like 2000’s
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