Filter by Categories

Something for your Espresso: Tightening the noose on Consumers

All eyes are on the CPI release this week. We believe risks are skewed toward a below-expectations print and we now see the monetary policy increasingly passing through to key areas for consumers. Could July be the last hike?
2023-07-11

Good morning everyone!

We are back at the desks this morning. Everything this week is about the US inflation report and after our preview here from Yesterday I thought it appropriate to start the morning with some additional complimentary points.

First of all, it is worth noting how expectations are generally trending down: According to the inflation expectations survey conducted by the New York Federal Reserve, consumers anticipated a 3.8% inflation rate over the next 12 months in June. This figure is a decrease from the 4.1% reported in May and a significant drop from the 6.8% recorded one year ago. Furthermore, the survey indicated that three-year ahead inflation expectations hovered slightly below 3% in June, showing a decline from the 3.6% reported a year ago- in other words NY FED inflation expectations are at the lowest in 2 years.

Secondly, we may well be in an exceptional environment full of false flags but with consumers expecting inflation to ease and banks reporting tighter lending standards it is not at all surprising that Consumer credit is facing headwinds:

Chart 1: Bank Lending vs Tightenings standards survey

All eyes are on the CPI release this week. We believe risks are skewed toward a below-expectations print and we now see the monetary policy increasingly passing through to key areas for consumers. Could July be the last hike?

0 Comments

STENO RESEARCH IS JOINING REAL VISION

From July 2025, Steno Research is joining Real Vision to create the ultimate macro research product for you!

As a subscriber, this means the following:

Yearly subscriber: For legal reasons, we cannot transfer your pre-paid subscription directly. You need to register with Real Vision and then we’ll transfer your pre-paid subscription quickly afterwards. Simply go to https://www.realvision.com/free and sign up - and then we’ll take care of the rest! We will shut down service of Steno Research on July 31st, so be sure to make the transfer to keep receiving our content.

Already a RV subscriber?
Please check that you are using the same e-mail. If yes, you don't need to do anything. If not, please contact [email protected].

Monthly subscriber: Your current monthly subscription with Steno Research will end during July (31st at the latest). To continue accessing our research (and more), you’ll need to sign up for a Real Vision membership. Check out your options on: https://www.realvision.com/pricing

For Institutional Clients:
- Your access has been moved to our new institutional offering at NowcastIQ.com
- If you haven’t been moved already, please contact [email protected]