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Something for your Espresso: Hamster wheel of trouble is still turning

US CPI is the biggy this week and on the back of a consensus job-market report, the soft landing synthesis seems to be the current impulse for the market to respond to. But is sentiment starting to get too complacent?
2023-07-10
<a href="https://stenoresearch.com/author/emilmoller/" target="_self">Emil Møller</a>

Emil Møller

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Good morning from sunny Denmark!  Another week is upon us!

And the treacherous macro cycle showed its once yet again and messy data keeps coming in:

It appears that last week’s job report was largely in line with expectations, while the ADP report turned out to be misleading. However, the market’s reaction spoke volumes about the current sentiment in the highly volatile Bond market, which has experienced significant fluctuations throughout June. I have a sense that there might be more turbulence ahead in the coming months. Considering the recent performance of risk assets, credit desks being positioned for short volatility and bullish sentiment for the upcoming months, unprepared participants may face a painful unwinding. Caution is your friend at this juncture:

Chart 1:  AAII US Investor Sentiment Bullish Readings

US CPI is the biggy this week and on the back of a consensus job-market report, the soft landing synthesis seems to be the current impulse for the market to respond to. But is sentiment starting to get too complacent?

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