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Something for the Espresso: Ueda’s first move

Ueda's move has changed the fundamentals of global macro and markets have to adjust to the new reality. But perhaps there is more to come?
2023-08-04

Good morning everyone!

This morning concludes the last trading day for a week that has been anything but boring. Shorts are back with a vengeance western fixed-income longs are probably cursing away the BoJ as risk premia on UST surges

We have been looking at Japan for quite a while and I can’t say I am completely taken by surprise neither by Ueda’s move which may very well go down as one of the most prudent in modern BoJ history. But it comes on the back of a lasting pro-cyclical monetary policy regime and Ueda & Co are by no means out of the woods yet

Chart 1: Measures of Inflation, Japan

Ueda’s move has changed the fundamentals of global macro and markets have to adjust to the new reality. But perhaps there is more to come?

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