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Something for your Espresso: Gradually then suddenly: labour, inflation and banks

To quote Hemmingway: Gradually then suddenly. That goes both for Silicon Valley bank's infamous deposit base and the transition of monetary policy into the real economy. Is the peak in? Not in pain
2023-05-12

Good morning everyone! Here at Steno Research, we’re all hands on deck, working tirelessly to provide you with the best service possible. As a part of this effort, Andreas is once again on the move, dealing with clients outbound.

Alas, it falls on me to make sense of the proverbial tea leaves we’ve been dealt these past weeks this morning. It would seem our call of imminent economic weakness is finally materialising, a joyless call but nonetheless comforting to know that we seem to be on base.

This week’s inflation print must have been music to Powell’s ears, while I personally thought we might see a print a tad above expectations we got the inverse scenario, though fairly aligned with consensus upping the odds of a June pause. Across the pacific The Chinese PPI print only underlines the anchor dragging the US CPI down:

To quote Hemmingway: Gradually then suddenly. That goes both for Silicon Valley bank’s infamous deposit base and the transition of monetary policy into the real economy. Is the peak in? Not in pain

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