Welcome to this week’s Great Game! Once again, we’re focused on the two big wars going on – Ukraine and Gaza. What are the risks, what will hit markets and what’s the outlook? Here’s my take:

Ukraine Kursk Offensive

Situation:

Last Tuesday, Ukraine launched an offensive into Russian territory in the Kursk and Belgorod Oblasts. Previously, attacks on Russian territory has been limited to local insurgents or rocket strikes, but this time the Ukrainians are attacking with substantial forces. Russia was caught completely off-guard by the attack and could only muster very light resistance on the border. Already by the weekend, Ukraine had pushed around 15 kms into Russian territory and Putin lost his patience, placing the defense and counter-offensive under the leadership of Alexander Bortnikov, head of the secret police FSB.

The status as of Tuesday is that Ukraine controls over 1,000 square kms of Russian territory, including the entire city of Sudzha. Key railway and gas connections have fallen under Ukrainian Army control and the Ukrainian Army is carrying out widespread supply interdiction missions to keep the Russians on the back foot. Meanwhile, Ukrainian troops are beginning to dig in and take defensive positions, indicating that this is not simply a “hit-and-run” raid mission, but an attempt to seize and hold Russian territory. Whether Ukraine can manage to take the major city of Kursk is still unclear, but the Russian defenses in the region still appear to be in complete shambles, so we might see rapid developments over the coming days.

What’s next: