All across the world, people are worried about Donald Trump and the uncertainty he will bring to the global order. For macro investors particularly, Trump has proven a continuing headache with his weekly insistence on pushing out tariffs news or other bombshells late Friday. This past week-end was not exception with Trump’s remarks on reciprocal tariffs and potential tariffs on aluminium and steel.

Even so – I would argue that we need to separate things. Obviously, Trump is a major disruptor for global markets and is causing a lot of unnecessary disturbance and volatility to markets with his headlines. So geo-economically, it’s absolutely fair to say that Trump is introducing risk and uncertainty.

However – geopolitics is a different beast. While many feared the erratic and unpredictable Trump of his first term, I think we’re seeing a vastly different Trump this time around. Granted, Trump still seems to have the attention span of a goldfish and Benjamin Netanyahu still has the ability to talk him into ludicrous ideas and projects. Trump is still a wheeler-dealer, after all. But when you look at the big geopolitical headlines, you have to acknowledge that things are improving rapidly right now.

• In December, the Assad regime fell and Syria got a new government, so far ending the decade-long Syrian Civil War
• A few weeks ago, we got the long-awaited cease-fire between Israel and Hamas was signed and so far, the prisoner exchanges and withdrawals seem to be going mostly smooth.
• The Red Sea is now open to international shipping, even if major shipping companies are still hesitant.