Happy Friday from Copenhagen!

It’s been a strange and revealing week in macro markets. The USD continues to weaken under the weight of increasingly erratic U.S. policy signals—drifting closer to EM-like behavior in both price action and perception. We believe this policy turbulence, reminiscent of Erdogan-style interference, calls for renewed focus on debasement trades. Gold, front-end U.S. bonds (those still largely under the Fed’s control), and Bitcoin are our preferred expressions. We’re positioning now, with a view that Bitcoin rallies no later than May.

In parallel, we’re picking up early signs of a possible shift in tone from China. Beijing appears to be floating a path toward de-escalation, signaling both the limits of current tariff pain and a desire to stabilize USD/CNH. Their incentives are aligned: a stronger yuan allows domestic stimulus and narrows the trade gap with the U.S. It’s hard to imagine any U.S.-China or U.S.-Japan agreement that doesn’t involve the USD moving lower versus CNY and JPY. A semi-formal “USD accord” seems increasingly plausible.

Beijing’s messaging today—rejecting further U.S. tariffs while indicating no further retaliatory response—is both a warning and an invitation to negotiate. If even a modest level of geopolitical order returns, there’s a meaningful bond trade in the wings. We’re focused on the belly of the curve, not the long end, where policy noise and market pushback remain elevated.

In short, the regime has changed. U.S. fiscal credibility is being tested, the Fed’s independence is being questioned, and markets are beginning to price these dynamics. It’s time to own more protection against dollar debasement.

Chart of the week: Gold knows no limits