Happy Friday! 

Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro. These insights are shared with hedge funds and institutional clients, and each Friday, we’re bringing them directly to you. 

While the macro landscape can be complex, we believe it doesn’t have to be intimidating. In this recurring series, we break down the key takeaways from the week ending, explain what we’ve told hedge funds, and outline how we’re trading these ideas – all in a straightforward and actionable way. 

First of all, how have our trade ideas and portfolio performed over the past week?

The portfolio has taken a hit from the repricing of US Treasuries and global bonds, as our net-long tilt towards US and UK fixed income faced headwinds. Despite increasing inflation risks, our energy bet hasn’t delivered returns—even with oil and energy rallying.

Our portfolio remains heavily weighted towards lower rates, but we’ll be adjusting this soon. The outlook has shifted slightly, and we’ve admittedly been caught wrongfooted on the long bond trade, as markets are beginning to price inflation risks again—negative for both equities and bonds.

Chart of the Week: Portfolio performance since inception