Happy Friday! 

Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro. These insights are shared with hedge funds and institutional clients, and each Friday, we bring them directly to you.

While the macro landscape can be complex, we believe it doesn’t have to be intimidating. In this recurring series, we break down the key takeaways from the week, explain what we’ve told hedge funds, and outline how we’re trading these ideas — all in a straightforward and actionable way.

As always, let’s have a look at the current portfolio setup before we jump into the macro stories

Price action in risk assets was fairly benign across the board to start the week, but sentiment has quickly soured as markets begin pricing in that the weakness observed in soft data may soon spill over into hard data. This could potentially fuel another leg lower in equities—especially if Trump holds firm on tariffs, as expected.

We’re still waiting for the perfect opportunity to reload U.S. risk exposure, but the current price action doesn’t favor a material relief rally just yet. That’s why we’re sitting on our hands, even though the portfolio continues to suffer from the ongoing selloff in equities.

Chart of the Week: Current Portfolio Performance