Happy Friday! 

Every week, we dive deep into macro trends, analyze asset movements, and uncover the best value plays in the world of macro. These insights are shared with hedge funds and institutional clients, and each Friday, we bring them directly to you.

While the macro landscape can be complex, we believe it doesn’t have to be intimidating. In this recurring series, we break down the key takeaways from the week, explain what we’ve told hedge funds, and outline how we’re trading these ideas — all in a straightforward and actionable way.

As always, let’s have a look at the current portfolio setup before we jump into the macro stories

Our bet on crypto performing as the gold fever faded has been nothing short of a catastrophe so far, admittedly. Bitcoin and other digital assets are struggling as general risk sentiment sours. It’s hard to recall the last time we had a period with virtually no good news—tariff concerns are mounting again, while macro data continues to come in on the weak side.

We’ve been emphasizing that macro surprises will continue to deteriorate, as our nowcast on US growth has been weakening. This is probably not a bad time to add to such bets, as there are few arguments for any near-term macro improvement (unless the Fed steps in—but more on that later).

With that in mind, let’s jump straight into the top stories we delivered to hedge funds this week—and how you can play the current market environment.