Take aways: 

• Norwegian maintenance season and no flows from Russia is a spicy mix
• Temperature is the main factor for worries about stock levels 
• 2022 mayhem may be closer than you think
• Refiners’ capacity utilization weak causing fear of crude gluts 

Hello from Copenhagen. 

Fears in natural gas markets have returned as Ukrainian troops are giving Putin his own “Operation Citadel” moment. While many European countries have sought alternatives to Russian gas, nations like Austria and Slovakia still depend on it. Currently the attacks on Sudzha have caused flows into Ukraine to drop by 50 GWh/Day representing less than 1% of total inflows into the EU. 

There is of course the chance that the attack will speed up the end of the “Brotherhood pipeline”,  which in case will see Europe wave goodbye to inflow totaling around 6.6% of the total flows. If you couple that with the Norwegian maintenance season things could get spicy. 

Given that Ukraine’s gas transmission operator, LLC Gas TSO, does not wish to extend Russian gas transport beyond 2024, there lie even greater catalysts for fears 6-8 months in the future, assuming the Brotherhood line isn’t closed preemptively.

Chart 1.a: Steady flows to Europe for much of the time