Hello, and welcome back to our weekly editorial on commodities and geopolitics.

Trump is keeping us busy yet again, threatening to impose another 25 percentage points (which was pulled back a couple of hours later, as usual) on top of the steel and aluminum tariffs, targeting the Canadian car industry at the same time. By now, it’s very clear that his main agenda is to move jobs and factories to the U.S. by limiting imports—but the question remains: will he actually follow through?

Sticking with Trump headlines (what else is there to talk about these days?), anonymous Western sources claimed that Putin knew Ukraine would not accept the terms of a peace deal. And once again, only a few hours later, a temporary truce was in place. This makes it incredibly difficult to trade commodities at the moment, as you risk getting run over by a bus even if you correctly predict the demand side of the equation—which is exactly the scenario we’ve found ourselves in lately. Below is our full analysis of the current situation in Ukraine and the German fiscal defense spending package, which, as we’ve previously discussed, is a game changer for European risk assets.