Greetings from Copenhagen.

We’ve previously advocated a long tilt toward commodities, as both the U.S. and global growth outlooks are being repriced amid the reopening of trade and the sudden realization that the U.S., China, and even Europe have collectively slammed the deficit accelerator—rather than the brakes.

Everywhere you look, countries are ramping up fiscal spending to cushion the blow of tariffs. All signs of DOGE-era austerity are gone in the blink of an eye—even Trump has confirmed there’s no plan to cut spending in any meaningful way.

We’re already seeing the rebound in trade appear in freight rates, which are bouncing off cycle lows. Shipping volumes are climbing, and we could be setting up for a “ketchup effect” as importers rush to rebuild inventory ahead of the Q4 spending wave. This creates a favorable window to position in shipping operators, especially as equity market expectations remain muted and freight rates remain depressed.

Chart 1: Freight Rates Are Bouncing Back!