Happy Tuesday, and welcome back to our weekly commodity editorial, where we keep you updated each and every week on what’s going on in the world of commodities, energy, and the like!

It’s hard to talk about commodities without talking about China these days, as we have seen a complete reversal in the Chinese macro scene after we scouted last week for the best commodity plays should the Chinese stimulus come through. After all, they used the same wording as they did back in 2008, and it was wise of markets to “cry wolf,” as China would need to publish actual stimulus plans and their size before markets chased the story.

Our real-time growth model on China has made somewhat of a U-turn since last week. It seems the play in global markets is to fade China as long as we don’t get any news from the authorities on the actual size of stimulus packages, and we tend to lean in the same direction—which, to be frank, is not positive for commodities.

Chart 1: Chinese growth is weakening, which remains the base case as long as stimulus stays off the table