Happy Wednesday from Copenhagen.

Trump now has to deal with a reality where Russia is not going to end this war without being forced to—probably always the case—but Trump allowed himself to be friend-zoned by Putin in the run-up to these peace talks.

Various media outlets have already reported that a sanctions package is being prepared to put pressure on Russia, and in the following, we’ll try to assess the potential content and ramifications of such a package.

We already know that the U.S. administration is strategically trying to improve self-sufficiency and reduce strategic dependence on enriched uranium imports. U.S.–Russian trade ties have obviously weakened massively since 2022, including in the uranium space, which likely makes it more tempting for Trump to consider using secondary tariffs or sanctions on countries buying Russian uranium—France and, to some extent, China and India being on the receiving end of such flows.

Such a move would likely squeeze input costs, and we are already seeing early signs of renewed upward pressure in uranium swaps. Uranium is obviously a small part of Russian exports, but given the U.S.’s lack of strategic dependence on Russia in this area, it becomes an easy choice for Trump to include in a broader sanctions package. Canadian uranium miners look promising given this context, and we consider adding to such bets in coming days.

Chart 1a: The US is no longer dependent on Russia in Uranium space