Greetings from Copenhagen. 

Over the past two weeks, Ukraine has grown much more audacious in its strategic strikes on Russia. Beginning with the drone swarm following Putin’s presidential jet and most recently followed up by the spectacular drone strike against Russian strategic air bases and the bombing of the Kerch Bridge, Ukraine has proven it’s ability and willingness to strike anywhere and at anything inside Russia.

While it’s a massive embarrassment for Russia and will most certainly be met with a massive response within the next 24-72 hours, it’s important to note that these attacks have very little tactical implications on the front in Eastern Ukraine. They do nothing to alter the fact that over 600,000 Russian troops are currently sitting in occupied Ukrainian territory – as and such, they do not fundamentally alter the course and outlook of the war. It’s still my firm conviction that Ukraine will face severe problems during the ongoing Russian summer offensive and that Putin is dragging out the peace talks for exactly that reason.

It seems – however – that Donald Trump is waking up to the fact that Putin has simply been stalling and dragging things out since peace talks began back in February. Trump is growing impatient with Putin and as far as we can tell, Trump has a ready-made sanctions package on his desk, ready to implement when he feels the timing is right. We don’t know exactly what the sanctions package entails, but a few key points will likely be:

• Seizure of frozen Russian financial assets (massively bullish for Gold)
• Sanctions on Russian uranium exports to Europe (bullish for Uranium and producers)
• Secondary sanctions on countries purchasing Russian oil (bullish for Oil)