Welcome to our weekly editorial on everything Geopolitics and Commodities.

Industrial metals (and precious metals) have performed very well this year, and we’ve thankfully been part of (parts of) this ride. With new signs emerging of a stimulus targeting consumption patterns in the economy, Wall Street’s takeaway has been that China has regained significant momentum.

If you’re still wondering whether China made a real move to boost consumption this weekend, here’s the bottom line:

China is rolling out 300 billion yuan ($41.4 billion) in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds in 2025 to fund its consumer goods trade-in program—double the 150 billion yuan from last year. The “Action Plan to Revitalize Consumption” is all about getting people to spend more by raising incomes, expanding pensions, improving services, and making it easier to buy and trade in goods.

Some key highlights: higher minimum wages, more pension support, extra help for capital markets, and subsidies for rural households. They’re also pushing for better childcare, elderly-friendly infrastructure, and new tourism opportunities. On top of that, they’re easing car-buying restrictions, encouraging AI-powered shopping, and expanding the use of housing funds for renovations.

Sounds like a big deal, right? Well, not really—at least in terms of macro impact. Given China’s massive economy (about 126 trillion yuan in 2024), this extra 150 billion yuan in spending is just 0.12% of GDP. So, while it’s a nice boost, it’s nowhere near a game-changer.

So while investment banks are now raising their projections for China left, right, and center, we’re starting to doubt whether there’s much juice left here—especially since our nowcasts already seem “toppish” on growth.

Chart 1: The Chinese growth momentum may have already peaked