Time for your weekly fix of what’s going on at the messy intersection of commodities and geopolitics. Energy prices are drifting lower — just as Trump said they would — but I’m not so sure the driver is the one Trump and his team anticipated.

We’re staring down the barrel of a pretty material manufacturing slump in Q2. Why? Because everyone rushed to stuff their supply chains ahead of the tariff deadlines, and now inventories are full to the brim. The result? A classic post-rush hangover, with destocking looming and semi-soft demand to follow. It’s not a great look for the real manufacturing economy, and it’s definitely not a great setup for commodity bulls.

Take the Empire Fed, for example — forward order books look absolutely trashed. In fact, the 6-month outlook is the weakest we’ve seen since the GFC. The only other time we saw something this bad was during the pandemic mess. Sure, readings like that can be a green light for risk assets (classic contrarian setups), but commodities don’t play by the same rules. These are physical markets — you can’t trade your way out of full tanks and overflowing warehouses.

Chart of the week: An 09 style slump in Manufacturing orders?